Coronavirus R rate in England rises above 1 as new cases continue to rise

The UK reproduction number, or R value, of coronavirus transmission has risen above 1, according to the Government Office for Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage).

Latest figures show the estimate for R across the UK is between 1.0 and 1.2 as the number of newly diagnosed cases continues to rise, with higher incidence seen in young people aged 18 to 24 years.

According to Government advisers, the last time R was above 1 was in early March.

R represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect. When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially. In England, R is between 1 and 1.2.

The figure is slightly higher in London and the North West – between 1.1 and 1.3 in both regions.

The transmission growth rate, which reflects how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, has also increased slightly.

For the whole of the UK, the latest growth rate is between minus one per cent and plus three per cent per day. This means the number of new infections is somewhere between shrinking by one per cent and growing by three per cent every day.



The most likely value is towards the middle of the range, experts say. But they also said R and growth rates should be considered alongside other metrics.

These include the number of new cases of the disease identified during a specified time period (incidence), and the proportion of the population with the disease at a given point in time (prevalence).

R infection value and growth rates in England

East of England

R number is 0.9-1.2, while the growth rate is between minus 1% and plus 4%.

Midlands

R number is 0.9-1.1, while the growth rate in the region is between minus 1% and plus 3%.

North East and Yorkshire

R value is 1.0-1.2, while the growth rate is between plus 1% and plus 5%.

South East

R value in the region is 1.0-1.2, while the growth rate is between zero and plus 4%.

South West

R value of 0.9-1.2 and a growth rate of between minus 1% and plus 4%.

London

R value is 1.1 to 1.3, while the growth rate is between plus 2% and plus 4%.

North West

R rate is 1.1 to 1.3, with growth rate figure is between plus 2% and plus 5%.

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