Here's when Bitcoin will actually reach 99.99% uptime

In about 2,005 days, Bitcoin will be the holy grail of the four nines—that is, 99.99% uptime for its global blockchain network. According to internal calculations, we estimate Friday, November 14, 2025 as the date Bitcoin will reach the milestone, assuming nothing goes wrong in the meantime.

Bitcoin is estimated have been functional for 99,985% of its existence so far. That number would even be 100% if we only measured from 2013.

But Bitcoin has fallen twice. In 2010 In a “value spill incident”, two Bitcoin addresses were wrongly allocated 92.2 billion coins each. In this case, the blockchain was off for eight hours and twenty-seven minutes before a soft fork (minor update) effectively canceled the eavesdropped transactions.

In 2013, Bitcoin went down shortly after a block was rejected by certain miners using different versions of the Bitcoin client. This resulted in a short chain split that resolved after six hours and twenty minutes when the miners reorganized at the same customer.

Bitcoin versus the US dollar

Dan Held, director of business development at crypto exchange Kraken, posted a video to the main cryptocurrency subreddit that claimed Bitcoin had already maintained higher uptime than Amazon, Google and Facebook.

Image: Dan Held, Reddit

However, not everyone thinks that comparing Bitcoin’s uptime with the world’s largest technology companies is a solid benchmark. As a commentator on Held’s post proposed, Bitcoin’s uptime may need to be compared to that of other currencies:

Why compare a currency to technology companies? How much uptime did pay with usd? 100% ”, they claimed.

While some dispute this – claiming the US dollar has indeed been – it had downtime. A Reddit post in 2017 pointed out that hyperinflation and other monetary policy kept the first version of the dollar on its way. Four years later, it returned as the dollar we know today. In those four years, uptime was 98.36%, probably less than Bitcoin. But at this point, the discussion is too meta to really make sense.

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