Trump just completely mischaracterized new models showing a coming surge in coronavirus deaths

While President Trump is pushing for company reopenings – even if the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. is not under control – he responds to two new models that indicate the number of deaths and deaths will increase in the coming weeks, by mis-describing them to give.

The models are grim: one predicts that 135,000 Americans will die in early August, and the other estimates that the United States will die on June 1, 3,000 a day. Grilled on Tuesday by journalists prior to his departure for a trip to Arizona, Trump fired. they falsely claim to be based on “no restriction”, as in, if we did nothing.

“We do a lot of mitigation,” said Trump. And, frankly, when people report [to work], they’re going to distance themselves socially, and they’re going to wash their hands, and they’re going to do the things you need to do … but that report is a non-mitigating report, and we’re softening. ‘

But the fact is, the US is mitigating less than it did a few weeks ago. States are starting to reopen non-essential companies and customers are starting to patronize them.

And the two new models – one based on government data compiled by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and another by the University of Washington (IHME) Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation – take this into account. Both contain projections based on the easing of the mitigation Trump has defended by urging state governments to take steps to reopen businesses, even though none of them met the gate criteria of the White House coronavirus task force .

For example, the New York Times reports, the new IHME model, which estimates that the coronavirus will claim nearly 135,000 lives in the US in early August, states that its upward revision is based on “increasing mobility in most US states and on the relaxation of expected measures for Social Distance in 31 says to May 11, indicating that growing people-to-people contacts will promote coronavirus transmission. “(The FEMA document shows that the daily death toll in the US will be 3,000 by June 1, almost doubling from approximately 1,500 lives are claimed each day by the coronavirus at this time.)

Trump’s comments indicate that he thinks workers who are diligent to wash their hands and keep their distance from other people will be enough to slow the spread of the virus, but experts say it isn’t. Staying at home and the closure of most businesses have so far not been enough to bring down the trajectory of new business, they have only put the country on a relative plateau in new cases and deaths. This suggests that the number of new cases and deaths is likely to get worse as things reopen.

It is for these reasons that public health experts think it is premature to relax orders at home. But later in his comments outside the White House on Tuesday, Trump indicated that he thinks there is no choice but to try to get the economy going again.

Asked by a reporter if he fears the number of deaths is expected to increase because states are relaxing social distance guidelines too early, Trump replied that he is not because ‘the fact that we let people go and go to work – they have to do it.”

“You know, if they were holding people for longer with the shutdowns, you are also losing people that way, and you already have, I’m sure,” Trump said. “But between drug abuse and, I mean, they say suicide – lots of different things. Just so you know, there is somehow no big win. “

While many would disagree with Trump’s insinuation that tens of thousands of lives are worth prematurely pretending the worst of the coronavirus is in the rearview mirror, Trump has self-interested motives to downplay the new models: he faces a tough reelection fight and the economic message that he planned to make it the center of his campaign was suddenly shifted to a conversation about the possibility of 20 percent unemployment and massive quarterly GDP declines.

So instead of dealing with the grim realities of public health, the White House instead relies on a more rosy model created by controversial White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, who shows unlikely that coronavirus deaths have fallen to zero in mid-May.

It’s hard to say exactly what the White House is currently basing its Covid-19 policy on, in part because Trump prevents House Democrats from asking government public health experts what’s going on. During another part of his Q&A with reporters on Tuesday, he said he is the government’s top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, blocks from testifying before the House of Representatives because “the house is a setup. (Fauci will testify next week for the Republican-controlled Senate.)

“The house is a bunch of Trump haters,” Trump added. “They honestly want our situation to be unsuccessful, which means death.”

He further suggested that the response of the American coronavirus is the envy of the world.

“The whole world is excited and looking at us because we are leading the world,” Trump said said – ignore that the US has suffered nearly 70,000 coronavirus deaths to date more than twice the number treaties by the number 2 country, Italy, which has had just over 29,000.

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