US election 2020: the key counties that could tell us who has won the presidency

Observers will be keeping a close eye on the results at state level tonight – but the really keen followers are looking at counties.

That is because there are some key counties whose result could help point to who is likely to win.

Why?

Well, demography, for one thing – as the composition of certain populations could give results that show how the wider state has voted.

And population size, too, is crucial – as some counties are so big that winning them can effectively win the state.

Business Insider says that most swing states have one or two counties that serve as a bellwether for the rest of the state.

So here are the counties that election observers are paying the most attention to.

Macomb County, Michigan

Trump won Michigan by just 0.2 per cent in 2016 – and places like Macomb are key.

The county is the home of Reagan Democrats – those people Ronald Reagan drew over to his side in his highly successful election victories in 1980 and 1984.

Obama won Macomb in 2008 and 2012, but Trump took the county in 2016.

He won the state by just over 10,000 votes – but Macomb gave him a majority of more than 48,000.

Erie County, Pennsylvania

This was one of 206 counties nationwide that voted for Donald Trump in 2016 after backing Obama in each of his elections.

The former Democratic stronghold has a large number of white working class voters – who were crucial to Trump’s victory in 2016.

Also Check:  Universal Credit may be increased permanently in new announcement

Cuyahoga County, Ohio

Cleveland.com says Ohio is a ‘toss up’. It went for Trump in 2016, Obama in the two elections before that, Bush in the two before that – and Clinton in the two preceding that.

So it could go either way – and the view is that Cuyahoga County is important.

If Democrats can get more of the minority vote out this time around, they could take it. And even if they do not, an improvement in the numbers here could be a good sign for other parts of the country.

Maricopa County, Arizona

This makes up 61 per cent of the population in Arizona, which both sides are desperate to take this time around. Business Insider says it is one of the fastest growing counties in America.

Democrat senator Kyrsten Sinema, elected in 2018, won Maricopa by 60,000 votes.

Whoever wins Maricopa County will probably win the state.

Seminole County, Florida

Trump won here in 2016 by only one per cent. However, the county has voted Republican in every election since 1952.

News 6’s Jim Cark said Seminole County went Democrat in the 2018 congressional election.

“If they take Seminole and St. Petersburg, they take the I-4 corridor and that’s enough to balance the Trump support in North Florida and South Florida and carry the state,” ClickOrlando.com reported him as saying.

Wake County, North Carolina

The county in North Carolina with the biggest population. Obama won it in 2008 and lost it in 2012.

Abc11 is reporting that campaigning in the county has been intense.

Also Check:  Manchester Arena bomber's brother facing life in jail over mass murder

Milwaukee County, Wisconsin

There was a drop of around 20 per cent in the black vote in 2016, which taken more widely was a factor in Clinton’s defeat.

Democrats want to get turnout up this time around to try to reverse that trend.

Voters were out lining up early today to have their say, WTMJ-TV reported.

Gwinnett County, Georgia

It backed Clinton in 2016 and is the second most populous county in Georgia. However, traditionally it was a Republican stronghold.

Vice-presidential candidate Kamala Harris visited this week in a sign of how important the Democrats view it to the contest.