As bitcoin (BTC) is continuing to struggle with breaking through the USD 10,000 level, a large move “in either direction” is more likely in the second half of the year, according to Arthur Hayes, CEO of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX. Which way it’ll go depends also on millennials’ decision on where to invest some of their stimulus money.
Speaking in a new interview with Raoul Pal, CEO of on-demand financial TV channel Real Vision, Hayes said that he does not believe there will be any “material move in either direction” for the bitcoin price before we get some kind of “confirmation” about the status of the real economy in the third quarter.
“Either <…> we’re going to go right back to where we were in January because the third quarter is going to prove that this is just temporary, or the second quarter was disaster and third quarter is marginally better, but we’re still down 20%, 25% from the trend line and that is when I think you start seeing stuff kick off again,” he said. (In January, BTC increased from USD 7,200 to over USD 9,000.)
Hayes further explained that one of the reasons why it’s been so difficult for bitcoin to stay above the crucial USD 10,000 level for an extended period is because few people have ever bought into bitcoin at those prices.
“We didn’t spend much time at those levels anyway,” Hayes said, adding that “it’s a huge psychological barrier,” but he believes “it’s going to fall by the end of the year.”
The CEO estimated that the market is going to continue “flirt around that level” for some time because “the average buy-in price, if you want to call it that, is around these levels.”
When asked who the “marginal buyer” is that will bring bitcoin from its current levels of around USD 10,000 and towards USD 100,000, Hayes said that it isn’t necessarily the institutions, but rather “the millennials” that should be brought back in.
“They’re going to get some funny money too from all the governments because of the lost jobs […] whatever governments have to do to buy off their support in the election, and they can use that money […] they can buy bonds, they can buy gold, they can buy crypto […] The world view on what it is they need to be investing in, in the future, I think is what’s going to move the needle for or against bitcoin,” the outspoken crypto CEO explained. He added that this may start happening over the next few months:
“I think really that discussion doesn’t really start until the third quarter, because I think everyone expects that some of these government programs, especially in the US, are going to start rolling off like the PPP [paycheck protection program] in the unemployment benefits.”
Meanwhile, as reported, the younger generation seems to have turned towards equities, rather than crypto, flocking to stock trading app Robinhood to buy penny stocks.
Back in April, American businessman and author of a best-selling personal finance book Rich Dad Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, advised investing in silver, gold, and BTC, saying that’s what he’d reinvest his stimulus money in.
At the time of writing (14:12 UTC), BTC is trading at USD 9,538, having dropped 1% in a day and almost 2% in a week. The price is up by 4% in a month and 16% in a year.